Commentary: A few hits, a few misses, but mostly solid predictions

Three days to 2008 -- so it's time for a regretful (or regret- free) backward glance at 2007. Let's see how your columnist did throughout the year. First up, predictions of things to come, published exactly one year ago.

"...what'll be next year's big scandal? I think we've pretty much exhausted the possibilities of lecherous closeted gay Republicans and/or evangelical leaders."

I was so wrong!

Apparently, there's a bottomless pit of shoe-tappin' same-sex lechers out there in GOPster land. It's high time to catch a Democrat in a good old heterosexual sex and money scandal -- but this year's crop of Dems seems pretty unpromising.

Other predictions were more or less on the mark.

I correctly predicted Mayor Rivera's easy re-election, Barrack Obama's run for the presidency and the legislature's sudden discovery of the once-obscure severance tax.

I said that our lawmakers, like all politicians "... will be mindful of the late Illinois Sen. Everett Dixon's famous couplet: 'Don't tax me and don't tax thee/Tax that fellow behind the tree!' And if you can extract money from unpopular entities who don't vote, all the better.

"That's why the formerly obscure phrase 'severance tax' will become a staple of our political dialogue. It's a politician's dream, isn't it? $200 million in new money, and who pays? Just the wicked, greedy oil companies. Not to mention the wicked, greedy mining companies."

On Jan. 19, I correctly forecast the coming meltdown in the subprime mortgage market, to the dismay of at least one local mortgage broker, who accused me of knowing absolutely nothing about money, business or mortgages. But, as a Major League Baseball umpire once famously said, "I calls 'em as I sees 'em."

Here's an excerpt from the column.

"How many (subprime) loans were made in the Pikes Peak region? And how many are likely to be foreclosed on?

"There's no way of knowing, but one thing that we do know is that the subprime lending business, virtually nonexistent a few years ago, is big business today.

"Because subprime lenders accounted for nearly a trillion dollars in home loans, 25 percent of the total, it's reasonable to assume that many of these loans will go into default. It could be that the problem might be even worse in markets like Colorado Springs than in overheated coastal markets, where equity run-ups have bailed out overextended borrowers.

"And if foreclosures continue to mount, we may see a repeat of the disasters of the late 1980s -- a local economic slowdown combined with a glut of housing inventory -- which, if history's any guide, means a Wal-Mart moment ... Watch for Falling Prices!"

During February, I was booted out of the GOP -- or, more accurately, removed from my petty leadership position. It made for a fun column -- and I was pleased, since the El Paso County Democratic Party had cancelled their advertising in the publication for which I had previously toiled, citing my penchant for making fun of them.

It's a mark of distinction, I think, to be publicly censured by both of our dysfunctional political parties.

"Picked up the mail the other afternoon and there was one of those irritating little notices sandwiched between the bills and the junk mail. I had a certified letter, return receipt requested, from the El Paso County Republican Party.

"It was a formal notification of my expulsion from the GOP. Just as Adam and Eve were cast out of the Garden of Eden, I was cast out into the political wilderness, a dread and drear landscape, inhabited only by lib'ruls, gays, abortionists, treehuggers, atheists, gun-haters, feminists, pornographers, union members and Hollywood sleazemeisters. Imagine my dismay -- what had I done to merit such a fate?

"'It has been brought to the attention of the El Paso County Republican Party that during the past General Election you publicly supported the Democrat candidate in House District 18 as well as other Democrat candidates.'

Later that month, no doubt still smarting from getting the bum's rush from the GOP, I observed that the state legislature had become terra incognita.

"What do we, in the Colorado Springs business community, know about the Democrats who now run our state?

"Let's face it -- we know less about the Democratic legislature than the Bush administration knows about North Korea's nuclear program. And just as the Bushies look upon North Korea with contemptuous loathing, we can barely tolerate those crazed lib'ruls."

During March, I reluctantly applauded City Council for bypassing the voters and unilaterally establishing the stormwater enterprise. While agreeing with Doug Bruce that it sure looks like a tax, I bought into the city's rationale, i.e., that the consequences of a defeat at the polls would be too disastrous to risk.

"... sometimes elected officials have to bend seemingly inflexible laws to accomplish essential public policy objectives. Imagine seeing someone drowning in a lake with a 'no swimming' sign on the shore. Are you going to attempt a rescue or obey the sign? The answer is obvious."