More Catholics on the way: they're likely to be gray-haired, healthy and rich

There's a common lament in Catholic circles and it has to do with the number of "gray heads" that show up for church events. A room full of older Catholics is universally understood to be a bad thing, whereas a room full of young people would, presumably, be interpreted as a godsend.

In Catholic politics, the presence or absence of youth is a sign of success or failure. Liberals point to low levels of religious practice among young people to suggest that the church is insufficiently relevant, or that some teachings alienate young audiences, while conservatives adduce the success of more traditional seminaries and religious orders in generating young vocations to argue that the future lies with them.

Such reactions pivot on the common sense assumption that youth equals growth, while old age means decline. Yet given the "through the looking glass" demographic situation in which the world today finds itself, in many ways the exact opposite is the case. In the United States, the current total of 35 million Americans who are 65 or older, according to U.S. Census data, will more than double to 71 million by 2030.

That reality, combined with the sociological fact that the elderly are much more likely to take religion seriously and to practice their faith, suggests that the "graying" of the population--far from being something to lament--actually represents a potential "boom cycle" for the churches, if they know how to react.

First, the demographic data. Fertility rates around the world are declining. While the drop has been most pronounced in Europe and Asia, the tendency is near-universal. From 1960-65 to 2005, the total fertility rate in Tunisia dropped from 7.2 to 2.0, below the level of 2.1 children per woman of childbearing years needed to keep a population stable; in Egypt, from 7.1 to 3.2; Iran, 7.0 to 2.1; Mexico, 7.4 to 2.4; South Korea, 6.2 to 1.25; China, 6.1 to 1.8; India, 6.0 to 3.0; and Cuba 4.2 to 1.5. In the United States, the total fertility rate hovers slightly below replacement. While "population momentum," referring to the ongoing impact of earlier periods of high fertility, means that the world's population will continue to grow for the next half-century or so, somewhere in the 21st century it will peak and then begin to decline. How far and how fast remains to be seen, but some contraction is certain.

Demographers call this the "Second Demographic Transition," referring to an apparently long-term shift to lower global fertility. It's driven by urbanization, rising education levels for women and greater participation by women in the workforce, the easy availability of contraception and abortion, high levels of divorce, cohabitation outside marriage, and a host of other factors we generally think of as constitutive of modernity.

Among other things, declining fertility drives the median age up. Again, it's the West where the wave is cresting first. In the United States, the median age was 30 in 1950, but it will reach 41.1 by 2050. In Europe it will be 47.1, and in Japan a staggering 52.3. In addition, life expectancy is rising. According to the United Nations, global life expectancy was 47 years at birth in 1950, rose to 65 in 2000, and will increase to 74 in the year 2050. In short, fewer people are being born, while those presently alive are living longer.

The impact in the United States will be dramatic. Currently, Americans 65 and older represent 12.6 percent of the national population, a figure that will rise to over 19 percent by 2030. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Americans aged 14 and under presently outnumber those 65 and above by almost two to one, 60.5 million to 34.7. By 2050, that ratio will have swung strongly in the opposite direction. There will be 75.9 million Americans older than 65, as opposed to 59.7 million under 14, meaning the elderly will outnumber the youngest in the country by more than 16 million.

The oldest state in the Union in 2005, according to the Census Bureau, was Maine, which had a median age of 41.2. By 2050, that will be roughly the median age for the entire nation. Within a half-century, America won't have to remember the Maine; we will be Maine.

Health care strains

Neoconservative critics often deride this "birth dearth" in moral terms, as evidence of the cultural suicide of modernity, the bitter fruit of a "contraceptive mentality." Those given to realpolitik worry about the implosion of American power, wondering how a graying nation will maintain its defense budget and field armies, whatever one makes of such analyses, the trends upon which they're based are real, and at least some of their foreseeable consequences do not require much speculation. Most notably, the aging of the population will place enormous strains on pensions and health care. According to the Congressional Budget Office, under current conditions the cost of Medicare and Medicaid will rise from 4.3 percent of the Gross Domestic Product in 2000 to 21 percent in 2050. Unless something changes, those two programs alone will eat up a larger share of the country's output than the entire federal government does today.